My 2010-2011 MWC Basketball picks

Alright, a few days after the official season opener, but I don't think there have been many games that we can learn much from, so I think it's still valid to give my 2010-2011 Mountain West Conference Basketball picks:

1. BYU
2. San Diego State
3. UNLV
4. New Mexico
5. Utah
6. TCU
7. Wyoming
8. Colorado State
9. Air Force

I know that a lot of people are picking #25 San Diego State to win the league and I almost did myself. They have all five starters returning from last year including Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas. I think the Aztecs are the most athletic team in the league and probably have the most talent. But they always seem to manage to lose a game or two in the MWC that they shouldn't and I think that will happen again this year. I think they will have a good year and make the NCAA Tournament and probably beat BYU in San Diego, but I still think they finish second. The Aztecs get a good non-conference test tomorrow night at #11 Gonzaga at 9 p.m. MT on ESPN2. That could give us a gauge on just how good this team is.

#23 BYU gets my pick to win the MWC for a number of reasons, chief among those being Jimmer Fredette. Fredette is in my opinion the best player in the Conference and when he gets going it can be lights out. He can single-handedly win games for his team when he is going right. I think Dave Rose is a great coach and manages to get more out of his teams than what is on paper and he always seems to manage to recruit great shooters. BYU enjoys a tremendous home court advantage as well and is very, very difficult to defeat there. I think any team in the country would have a tough time in that environment. That being said, it's not impossible to win there and teams can go in there and get a win. It just takes a great effort from a really good team. I think San Diego State will give them a game in Provo and UNLV may as well. But I think the thing that separates BYU from the rest of the league this year (aside from Fredette) is that they win the games they are supposed to win. I don't see them dropping games to TCU, Colorado State or Wyoming, etc. I'm not predicting the other contenders to drop games to those teams per se, but I think it's more likely to happen.

New Mexico is "only" losing Roman Martinez and Darington Hobson from last year's surprising MWC Championship team. But those are two big losses. Hobson was the player of the year and Martinez had a knack for knocking down clutch shots. However, the Lobos have a number of solid players back as well as a good coach in Steve Alford and I think will be right in the thick of the race and finish just behind UNLV in fourth place. I just don't know if they have what it takes to push them over the top.

UNLV is athletic and tough at home and should have another good year. This is all contingent on if Tre'Von Willis plays following his offseason arrest stemming from a domestic incident. Word is Willis will miss at least one regular season game, presumably before Conference play. If Willis is back and a team player, the Rebels can be right in the race. If Willis is out, then I would think New Mexico would easily pass them for 3rd place and they would be fighting Utah for 4th. With Willis in I think they are likely to be well ahead of the Utes in the standings.

Speaking of Utah, that's my team. The Runnin' Utes have made wholesale changes since last year's disappointing 14-17 campaign and Head Coach Jim Boylen has to be feeling pressure to perform this year. Fans like me aren't happy with the beating the Utes took at home to rival BYU in the regular season finale, it wasn't just that the Utes lost, it was that they looked worse than I've ever seen them in doing so. So hopefully the new changes to the roster foster a culture of more winning and competition on an every game type basis. I'm optimistic about this season and excited to see how things work out. I think if everyone gels, the Runnin' Utes could surprise some people this season. However, I'm trying to pick based on what's likely to happen and I have to temper my enthusiasm and pick the Utes fifth.

TCU I think is sixth this year, they always seem to have a few good players who can help them win a few games that maybe they shouldn't, particularly at home. I know the media picked Colorado State fifth, but I'm just not sold on the Rams. They don't inspire any confidence in me in being to win on the road except against the lowest of competition and I don't exactly see them having a clean slate at home either. So I picked TCU and Wyoming (and Utah) to finish ahead of them. The Horned Frogs and Cowboys I think have more potential to sneak up on people than does CSU.

Air Force gets picked to finish in last again. The Falcons have a unique, Princeton-style offense that can be difficult to defend and generally are a disciplined team. For this reason, they can stay in a lot of games that they otherwise wouldn't be able to. However, I don't think they are talented enough to finish somewhere that isn't in last, particularly offensively where they can go into prolonged dry spells.

So there you have it. Those are my picks and I'm sticking to them. I hope the Utes perform better than what I have them picked to do. We'll see. For the record I think BYU, San Diego State, UNLV and New Mexico all make the NCAA Tournament and that Utah just makes the NIT with TCU missing out on this and being relegated to the CBI. I don't see anyone else making postseason play. I'm really excited to see how this college basketball season plays out. I think college basketball is my second favorite sport to Major League Baseball so it's exciting that it is getting under way. The Mountain West has been a fun league to watch over the years so I'm going to enjoy this last season of it with Utah getting a chance to compete with its traditional rivals.